tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-204401062024-03-14T12:36:05.690-04:00Commodities ChartsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger125125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-43549699890699544472012-10-31T02:50:00.000-04:002012-10-31T02:50:44.324-04:00Crude oil prediction and IranIn case that the Iran situation will escalate in the future and oil export from the Persian gulf is disrupted : The triangle formation will break to the upside and the price of crude oil (wtic cl) will climb to the 210$ area .
Alternative scenario : oil will continue to range under 147$ for many years.
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicS4RMlsRXlh9Ehyphenhyphenl1j2tRGejzgqF-hVJxq88Xax8V2k1Y2LgbXIEJ34qMnFe3WTVC2vnVJQ9Wv0DMb6N5OuUz771xFfxB3DJ-5scoQZf6DMjE-gDg04Ab1DjOxE84_az80saw/s1600/crude+oil+prediction.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="294" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicS4RMlsRXlh9Ehyphenhyphenl1j2tRGejzgqF-hVJxq88Xax8V2k1Y2LgbXIEJ34qMnFe3WTVC2vnVJQ9Wv0DMb6N5OuUz771xFfxB3DJ-5scoQZf6DMjE-gDg04Ab1DjOxE84_az80saw/s400/crude+oil+prediction.PNG" /></a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-4883519669966415302008-12-02T03:49:00.004-05:002008-12-02T03:52:42.254-05:00CRB ChartDuring the last several month commodities had a huge correction . In my opinion - not much downside is left(If any) and speculative shorting should be avoided. <br />The only question is which commodities are the best buying opportunity?<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUwXb40TMv0egFU7vgSCrrNrNyIjHUvkCETfXgkAuHiHeI9a93Jdq8r1Mg3We7TsvdA4mb5zS5DZ41qnb54RKKk8cFA7KnDU_LrPdezUkHKDi91rIAh1V_UMuyi7PKS2_rmwFK/s1600-h/crb200812.PNG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 232px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUwXb40TMv0egFU7vgSCrrNrNyIjHUvkCETfXgkAuHiHeI9a93Jdq8r1Mg3We7TsvdA4mb5zS5DZ41qnb54RKKk8cFA7KnDU_LrPdezUkHKDi91rIAh1V_UMuyi7PKS2_rmwFK/s400/crb200812.PNG" border="0" alt="crb long term chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5275112327312019234" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-79058180764606837962008-06-08T14:52:00.002-04:002008-06-08T14:58:35.401-04:00Crude Oil UpdateDespite the huge run up for crude oil prices - seen in the last ten years (up more then 1000%) there is no sign that the long term top is in. looking at the long term linear and logarithmic charts below you can see that higher highs are certainly possible. <br /><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT5iXIuD1mm13dT5dbARlHX7BP8CzzocWutsmLYf7VqYR-ismlPkGQW4xwoYwtRLSMMPQz91o7HVLKbs8Bub2WSYpmKmUPxMjWs957CoxoV-buBVkZzD88W6FP5A8ycMjqvofg/s1600/wtic_lin.png" border="0" alt="Crude oil long term linear chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5209585842077802114" /><br /><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0ZxLRJvWIlEvHmh70lLix1CHGFvhO94ZK6J-z27PCxBZRfipytWx4IWnj1s9qDb0Rh_f9_oUQSjLcvr30EgciH9tQWYlXtzvTjMY2yRMUATrpsd2To4Tk0XP2vVkfdr7Kflh_/s1600/wtic_log.png" border="0" alt="Crude oil long term logarithmic chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5209585834272241682" /><br /><br /><br />Obviously anything that goes up can go down but the crude oil market enjoys an ever increasing demand , low above ground inventories / consumption ratio and 100's of millions of consumers that are willing to pay increasing prices at the pump. Currently there are no major reports of immediate oil shortage, the price seems to be the major factor which keeps the supply demand balance in check.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-91161958283694388002008-03-30T22:53:00.002-04:002008-03-30T23:00:59.780-04:00Commodities long term Top ?In recent years most commodities had a huge run up. The Reuters CRB Continuous Commodity Index climbed more then 200%. By definition as a bull market is maturing there is less and less upward potential. I am sure there are many good reasons for commodities prices to be where they are and the outlook might seems even better but that is usually the case at cyclical top of any bull market.<br /><br />Bull markets often end in a spectacular rally one in which big profits are made quickly. Have we just seen that?, Is the commodities long term top is in place ?<br /><br />That's is not my point but the odds for multi month/year correction are certainly increasing. <br /><br /><br />The CCI index had surely proved itself to be the one index to follow this asset class.<br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWUm7zP35JAhrXorzppbO_UJznNI4NtK_48CM0wDPz8vCcd7PATqY7lX92DxMR4EXUvayJzFDhdvUZRxh3Hs7LI4TqfAbWHMLj4sFaHiy7yrgLI3qeYvwLR63WWO3nwTbSPi6r/s1600/cci.PNG" border="0" alt="CCI chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5183733935192187490" /><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbsWhhyphenhyphenJHE6KGT0YArNqV-QwfyqjdpbU32Ll_lIgXUOBl4q-y83YVxTfAriYO8ycWmxHtxi8-ts445F9dQrhl0STBlbqe3EH0W5kvEc5RknzoQNA0Jwvr6X1SI6KsfuohJ2uvs/s1600/crb.PNG" border="0" alt="CRB chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5183733935192187506" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-39767698681739776312008-01-08T09:13:00.002-05:002008-01-08T11:04:49.237-05:00PalladiumNot all commodities are at new all time highs.<br /><br />Palladium for example is about 60% below its 2001 highs. This volatile metal was trading anywhere between ~1100$ and less then 100$ over the last 30 years. <br /><br />There are several ways to invest, trade and speculate in palladium:<br /><br />1) Physical palladium: Palladium ETF (LSE: PHPD) and palladium maple coins.<br /><br />2) Palladium derivatives: Futures (Nymex: PA) <br /><br />3) Palladium mining stocks: SWC, PAL.<br /><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqkKOBsc9Fn89QgVvff3YYy26D5empoB0eYTDc5QYBkWYvah9KUWwD6Et_DahgEwj_tDZl_BsWuKd6PGFm_KfcvMGEREs0FnUHg4iHNMcQ77nzxKWcYnpQ66iRKJe6kgsK9vkN/s1600/pa.PNG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5153108935248278386" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-57300213300467111382007-08-03T08:08:00.000-04:002007-08-03T08:10:25.030-04:00Commodities exchange to be established in St. Petersburg<span style="font-style:italic;">Deputy Economic and Trade minister Kirill Androsov said that the international commodities exchange in St. Petersburg will be registered in September or October 2007.<br /><br />Speaking to journalists in Moscow, Androsov said the exchange would have an initial capital of $US 50 MLN and it would specialise in commodities such as aluminium, timber and metals, and particularly a new Russian export blend crude oil REBCO and oil products.<br /><br />Leading Russian companies have been invited to participate, with a limit of 10% ownership for founding members.</span><br /><br /><a href="http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/11887">source</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-74209762719879110592007-07-24T14:31:00.000-04:002007-07-24T14:35:57.134-04:00Crude Oil updateSeptember Crude Oil (CLU7) bottomed at 54.30$ after topping out at 79.90$.<br /><br />Still unclear if current level is sustainable.<br /><br />Resistance between 77$ – 79.90$.<br /><br />Support between 69$ - 70$.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Crude Oil(CLU7) weekly chart</span><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ5wwLQgfER3hPYeJP5jWA8Fi7LFGsS1OHD6TuZ0_318xhDn23H25hyphenhyphen7sGM_HKHGjxN7VMNCG_0BtkGRAQJ6PM6qT2vi-2N3ah_dK_Nk36Ihk2NbLeO1SozuLzpokzT1RgvrZO/s1600/clu7.PNG" border="0" alt="Crude oil chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5090833121306143970" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-62504458650281141642007-07-09T01:22:00.001-04:002007-07-09T01:26:39.726-04:00Platinum, Ready for new highs?The price of platinum registered a new all time high at May 2006, followed by a three wave correction (A, B, C) . In October 2006 the price bottomed at around 1050$ an ounce and a new rally has begun (primary direction is up so 5 wave pattern is expected). May 2007 another all time new nominal high slightly above 2006 high.<br /><br />Potential Inverse head and shoulders pattern with 1475$ as initial price objective.<br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBQbcsYGp9M0NYkDsXtn23rGIF6H7JkBtd99cesZhyphenhyphen7pzvVc4NY5SSRNZVSTilnZL_HcJnrZ-IKimITt2L5-KC2Y8sZo8j7tT_2uzg_i1FtEQ-CutlsryVncWEtP2nmvgnBW43/s1600/Plat.PNG" border="0" alt="platinum chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085063490092657906"/>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-4077648240812605992007-07-06T05:40:00.000-04:002007-07-06T09:38:27.771-04:00Copper InventoriesAs you probably know low stocks equals less supply and thus the price of copper is normally inversely correlated with LME copper warehouse stocks. The LME copper warehouse stocks level are declining consistently since February 2007, already down 50%. Copper stocks are down from about 200,000 to. 105,475 tonne (July 6).<br /><br /><br />Technically the copper chart looks fine , a-b-c 3 waves correction then an impulsive rally (wave i) , wave iii is currently underway, PPO , RSI up trending bullish. Potential inverted head shoulders pattern with a price objective of 520.<br /><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU79dWQimoX4cYD07G0Xg1-KFfkVLRlnsvEbn7Cw8j_J7Jp19U4eBAVPkxt2RcIa6A3e76IDD8u-YELssAc3dDAabmCi_oxYEQidk-xkQMU_gE0xYlJq-L0lx3meR9qI-4x5Zu/s1600/copper_bull.jpg" border="0" alt="copper chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5084016733548178642" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-44433666012897703822007-06-28T06:47:00.000-04:002007-06-28T06:50:50.842-04:00Tokyo Commodities Exchange to run 24 hours<span style="font-style:italic;">"Japan’s biggest commodities exchange plans to introduce 24-hour electronic trading. The move by the Tokyo Commodities Exchange is an attempt to attract foreign investors and fend off criticism that it is slowing Tokyo’s drive to become Asia’s leading international financial centre."</span> <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/72065c0a-24ec-11dc-bf47-000b5df10621.html">source</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-60878845643566628632007-06-20T16:56:00.000-04:002007-06-20T17:16:53.302-04:00CCI Commodities IndexAs previously <a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2007/04/cci-index.html">explained</a>, the CCI is the best barometer available for tracking the condition of the general commodities market. The CCI just made a new bull market high. If you are going to trade this index or any of its components be sure to study each of them both fundamentally and technically!<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Long term trend support around the 50 weeks moving average.</span><br /><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6rAWVMfpV9MFgbf7RbOq7tTZ7kvBQ2rqEQLaPpZCx0i9HrtY3Y_bkWJo7kLZYMn6Z_cbBg6Wah7um6rix7otBDXfAXPg4g3iZSqAe5rRw422gL79wrBKrKBGt5zP_St2zt1RS/s1600/cci_l.png" border="0" alt="cci chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5078256956597041394" /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Short term trend line support around 402.</span><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji4hD9DDsLCKSR3glFLhvImZvd-2DBnZJWtOpfRF_HSCjmT35xtjplGKJK8wQQwv0B2ER7XzZBXWTjv8I7ffek7QiUwinfqFkfjRKXgDv2j_9W2l5nIhgYGl0uOlAoDwS7oFky/s1600/cci_s.png" border="0" alt="cci chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5078256960892008706" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-18932284465066949142007-05-24T05:39:00.000-04:002007-05-24T05:48:46.336-04:00Uranium Futures (NYMEX: UX)Uranium futures contracts are currently available for trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The new contract was issued early this month and it is tradable on the CME Globex and Nymex clearport systems.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Specification: </span><br /><br />Each contract represents 250 pounds of U308<br /><br />Tick = 0.05$, tick value = 12.5$<br /><br />Initial Margin for non members is running around 3375$ per contract.<br /><br />Financially settled, price is based on the UxC index. – You can trade it but can't get the stuff.<br /><br /><br />According to the NYMEX data, the front month open interest (June 07) is just 17 contracts, a cold start I must say.<br /><br />Can you put a channel on this chart?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Uranium chart – 5 years<br /></span><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg41zJ_FHnWlV_YldHbNvA7uQ-i0W7JqzstkwcYUTKzEX86q8t4GykPBE4K-OghL7Q5Onpc-TCkeEArkj7e7WsflKSYDDun5nra38pLirlESfbu4GbL_qnEqfFYhGe_v4Q7XymZ/s1600/ux_IMa.jpg" alt="Uranium chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5068060657206281682" /><br /><br /><br />Support around 105$.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Uranium long term chart (37 years)</span><br /><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCVgI4XTAnNSoy_aJh2icpfo7-0xK_UCOl4cHOsjArJtB8mQ6jYKR6mE41vEl_3xVvHpU2f5FQeG0T3J5Pks3M_Tdr3XT4RxpsvTgjRWS9ODJzTJV9ti-Ihqw_5lWkENxRAMiH/s1600/U308a.jpg" alt=" long term Uranium chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5068060652911314370" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-10184556552234667052007-04-28T05:03:00.000-04:002007-04-28T05:10:33.091-04:00Marc Faber VideosMarc Faber interview on Bloomberg News. Dr. Faber talk about commodities and global markets. (a bit old but still relevant)<br /><br /><br /><br /><embed style="width:400px; height:326px;" id="VideoPlayback" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=6665390655611477207&hl=en" flashvars=""> </embed><br /><br />Dr. Marc Faber discusses the current world fiscal situation.<br /><br /><embed style="width:400px; height:326px;" id="VideoPlayback" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=126532317387856898&hl=en" flashvars=""> </embed>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-12798529740213447282007-04-23T23:55:00.000-04:002007-04-24T22:47:37.890-04:00LSE Precious Metals ETFsIn addition to the <a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2007/04/platinum-palladium-silver-etfs.html">new SWISS Precious Metals ETF's</a>, Five new physical precious metals ETF's are issued on the London Stock Exchange:<br /><br /><br />Physical Platinum, LSE code: PHPT<br />Physical Palladium, LSE code: PHPD<br />Physical Silver, LSE code: PHAG<br />Physical Gold, LSE code: PHAU<br />Physical PM Basket, LSE code: PHPM<br /> <br /><br /><a href="http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/tbd/temp/ETF.pdf">source</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-27984684188531364372007-04-18T00:39:00.000-04:002007-04-18T15:56:41.415-04:00Producers oppose platinum ETFNormally one would think that a producer would always be happy to see the product price climbing. According to AngloPlat and Impala Platinum this is not the case…<br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">"Trevor Raymond, head of investor relations at AngloPlat, said the world’s largest platinum producer was opposed to against the launch of a platinum as the fund would put upward pressure on prices and would have a negative impact on jewellery demand."<br /><br /><br />"Bob Gilmour, investor relations manager at Impala Platinum, the world’s second-largest producer, said it was important to retain a sense of perspective about ZKB’s plans as they did not involve a large amount of platinum but cautioned that the timing of the fund’s launch was poor."</span><br /><br /><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/23c21416-ed0c-11db-9520-000b5df10621.html">-source</a><br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;"><br /> "Given the current market conditions, it's probably not the opportune time to launch a product like this because it's just going to put further upward pressure on the price," said Bob Gilmour, manager of investor relations.<br /><br />"In the longer term, this is not what you want for demand because it causes attempts at substitution."<br /></span><br /><br /><a href="http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN733987.html">_source</a><br /><br /><span style="font-style:italic;"><br />Producers have been worried about spikes in platinum prices since that increases the threat of possible substitutions being developed for the metal.</span><br /><br /><a href="http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/companies/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&lvl2=comp&ArticleID=1518-24_2100047">-source</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Related :</span><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br /><a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2007/04/platinum-palladium-silver-etfs.html"> SWISS Platinum, Palladium & Silver ETFs</a><br /><br /><a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/11/platinum-etf.html"><br />Platinum ETF ?</a></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-57901991992310039452007-04-16T19:51:00.000-04:002007-04-16T20:02:48.120-04:00Platinum, Palladium & Silver ETFs<a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/11/platinum-etf.html">Last November</a> it was a bad idea now it’s a good one?<br /><br /><br /><br />Zuercher Kantonalbank, the biggest of Switzerland's 24 government-controlled cantonal lenders, will launch exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for three precious metals, including platinum, after it launched a gold ETF early last year.<br /><br />The bank plans to list the new ETFs, based on silver, platinum and palladium, on the SWX Swiss Exchange and trading is scheduled to start on May 10, the bank said in a press release on April 13. The new investment products are designed for wealthy private clients and institutional investors, it said. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=alz_KjpZHxwI&refer=commodities">-source</a><br /><br /><br />Price wise it seems like none event for now...<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Platinum Spot</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XPTUSDO&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 512px;" src="http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XPTUSDO&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Palladium Spot</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XPDUSDO&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 512px;" src="http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XPDUSDO&t=f&w=15&a=2&v=w" alt="" border="0" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-86563168471428351202007-04-15T17:47:00.000-04:002007-04-15T19:45:08.757-04:00WTI Crude Oil ChartsAn Uptrend is an uptrend until proven otherwise – when it breaks.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Log vs. Linear charts comparison:</span><br /><br /><br />The three years accelerated uptrend was broken on both linear and log charts.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Log Chart</span>: WTI Crude oil broke down from its five years uptrend but currently trades back above the uptrend.<br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3ftHGIpScdp2NWocY-NxArUYQBej-QgYIWvD1ZNcBCROmZipKnwE6H8iSsNgHg0PzShwKnTxKiFpHuz9raZv-UXbwGgVsvlqygNLPc62KZnGniwzD_pEmX3UvZbJGOx86xrx8/s1600/crude_l_log.gif" alt="WTI Log Chart " id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5053775753267183906" /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Linear Chart</span>: WTI Crude oil - the five years uptrend stayed intact.<br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC3NG4unmzYmGUHfuYzkeYGelSY4GaRGWUCJzuC4K4mq2XMpfn7KLgzJ3pUXAarAKas_09Z9aeFfNuIhj1SDuae6nsK3c3xXA5WtWwSFIZwtCFVuff2d92bER1FE_XyPVzawQw/s1600/crude_l_std.gif" alt="WTI Linear Char" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5053775753267183922" /><br /><br />On the weekly CL chart a noticeable uptrend is in progress.<br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN-bqKsQLS7sdVwDblJpfCQXKSJyUcLGMT87FDELE6c9vIuNvglrN5TsHscAVRLq7w-MN5HrWGlyUfiyFFzwx2Rgaxbl-O2frL3BvXNOIFhgpDbRUvVqZCwaL7ush6uy-HZDnx/s1600/crude_w.png" alt="CL weekly chart" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5053775757562151234" /><br /><br /><br /><br />To recap: The price of crude oil recently pulled back significantly. The five years uptrend was damaged. Technical damage requires technical repair, I opine that it will not be easy for crude oil to climb higher. In case of a break below the 2007 low, 40$ remains the long term bearish target.<br /><br /><br /><br />Related: <a href="http://globalgold.blogspot.com/search/label/Crude%20Oil">Crude Oil Gold Ratio</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-49205584969242324352007-04-12T16:03:00.000-04:002007-04-12T16:06:33.927-04:00Commodity ETF , Now In Italy<span style="font-weight:bold;">ETF Securities to launch 31 Exchange Traded Commodities products in Milan</span><br /><br />ETF Securities Ltd, which offers investors access to a range of commodities on multiple exchanges, said it is launching 31 exchange traded commodities (ETC) on the Milan stock exchange, following similar launches in Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and London.<br /><br />On the new listings, head of listings at ETF Securities Nik Bienkowski said: 'We are enabling investors to tap into the ever-increasing appetite for commodities and to trade easily and cheaply on a single platform.'<br /><br />The launch of the ETCs on Borsa Italiana, where investor demand has prompted the bourse to create a new specific segment on the ETFplus market, will take place next week and comprise 21 individual securities and 10 index securities.<br /><br />Among the 21 separate classes of commodity securities are aluminium, brent oil, coffee, crude oil, gold and sugar. The baskets of commodities indices include the ETFS Agriculture DJ-AIGCISM, ETFS Energy DJ-AIGCISM as well as ETFS Industrial Metals DJ-AIGCISM.<br /><br />ETCs, like exchange traded fund (ETFs), enable investors to trade commodities through ordinary brokerage accounts and can be bought and sold the same day by investors on a regulated exchange in the same way as any equity.<br /><br />Since Sept 2006, ETF Securities said that assets under management on these 31 ETCs have increased by about 200 pct to over 500 mln usd. The rapid growth in assets highlights the investor demand for easy access to new asset classes, it added.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/04/12/afx3605550.html">source</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-89797405933568549392007-04-09T07:14:00.000-04:002007-04-09T07:53:37.296-04:00The CCI IndexFor all practical purposes the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is the preferred index for tracking the condition of the general commodities market. The reason for that is the way in which this index is calculated – The CCI Methodology.<br /><br />5.88% for each of the 17 individual commodities included(<span style="font-weight: bold;">Energy 17.64% :</span> WTI Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Natural Gas, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Grains 17.64% :</span> Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Livestock 11.76% :</span><br />Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Softs 29.40% :</span> Sugar, Cotton, Coffee, Cocoa, Orange Juice, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Metals 23.52% :</span> Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper)<br /><br /><br />Here is the explanation of the CCI Methodology from the NYBOT:<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><br />The Continuous Commodity Index (CI)is weighted evenly among 17 component commodities. Each weighting is used for both arithmetic averaging of individual commodity months and for geometric averaging of the 17 commodity averages. With equal weighting, no single contract month or commodity has undue impact on the Index. The CCI uses a system of averaging all futures prices six months forward, up to a maximum of five delivery months per commodity. A minimum of two delivery months, however, must be used to calculate the current price if the second contract is outside the six-month window. Contracts in the delivery period are excluded from the calculation. Although each of the 17commodities is equally weighted, the CCI uses an average of the prices of the 17 commodities and an average of those commodities across time within each commodity. Each commodity is <span style="font-weight: bold;">arithmetically averaged</span> across time (the six-month window) and then these 17 component figures are <span style="font-weight: bold;">geometrically averaged</span> together. The continuous rebalancing provided by this methodology means the Index constantly decreases exposure to commodity markets gaining in value and increases exposure to those markets declining in value.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-50519721445098305622007-03-17T06:28:00.000-04:002007-03-17T06:35:03.007-04:00Buy & Hold Commodities?The DBC commodity ETF was listed on the AMEX at early February 2006, interestingly after a little more then a year the thing has gone nowhere! <br /><br />Anyone who bought the DBC at the IPO has seen little to no returns while at the same time nimble traders had several long & short trading opportunities.<br /><br />At the same time (February 2006 – March 2007) the CCI which is a broader commodity index have gained around 10%.<br /><br />That’s made me thinking - Did Deutsche bank picked the wrong commodities?<br /> <br />Technically:<br /><br />The DBC is near the 50 / 200 Moving averages and the 50% Fibonacci level. RSI is trending down below 50. The PPO is negative but still above the zero line.<br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2Mk5T6PWA8u4Xjmm4vtydu4xSMiYou4RmeAHPuUbbzvW7sk3JLkrThXltCqq3tCUlj7nM5LNUhtPnNNU6_tsLBVNtMTnQshF1ri-vnymdGGmCU6M6AnuetL2IaLpV5u4sN-Xx/s1600/dbc.png" alt="dbc chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5042839069951302002" /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">CCI(NYBOT) long term chart</span><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB06lz-lNmmzG67WS4_XvAj6i18BJqFZ6SeXvqzaDDZApGJM8ICeFu7427xPBCYsbfucrRb8h6CvSKsf3uBtCsClPLaZ5SAzVkzzezY1QAPlY58QYeQ-ZxX-srIzICZFBG6DHn/s1600/cci_all.png" border="0" alt="cci long term chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5042838593209932130"/>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-56295575307515421502007-03-07T05:22:00.000-05:002007-03-07T05:26:39.455-05:00Aluminum Chart (COMEX: AL)<div style="text-align: justify;">Between the second quarter of 2005 and the Second quarter of 2006 the price of aluminum climbed about 66 cents per pound (0.79$ - 1.45$) for an 83% nominal gain. Note that the price took shape of five wave pattern. According to Elliott waves analysis once a five wave pattern is completed a three wave counter trend should be expected (A, B, C). I estimate that wave (c) is currently underway and a lower low then (a) should follow. The RSI indicator is trending down below 50 and PPO is slightly negative.<br /></div><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ6LABg2m84dd2nq47f6HXIKA4fmwc5wi5l0_N3aoNb8PsGU3FELxH9brHpE6dY0R9P7wf-rFE75u5WB-UglT2r0xcv-X_7vK-cZ7sQBF4enitETzsIm7DkgjfCdrWjUI65YPB/s1600/alum.PNG" alt="Aluminum chart (AL)" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5039126271676217522" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-2047900702637749352007-03-01T02:43:00.000-05:002007-03-01T02:46:38.778-05:00Crude Oil – Update.Interesting situation, crude May futures contracts are up about 10$ from the year bottom. The price is out of the sharp downtrend but facing horizontal resistance from current level all the way to 66$. (The 50% Fibonacci line).<br /><br /><br /><br /><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqjLT6klrnzM0jAgHQe9aKNIBJQw7xdu_BkpwJyHTuvTg4Hvw3uJ3Wsh82G606doY87LP5CgMlsEMDg9JQl3z1OQKYozEIpKMyuSlIoi6j5UDOZY8qJKn-yvTYzRrYDyR5uX3Q/s1600/clk7.PNG" border="0" alt="Crude Oil weekly chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5036858744563789042" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-2034963242697000442007-02-13T05:58:00.000-05:002007-02-15T11:15:59.440-05:00Copper ChartsCopper is one of the most important tradable base metals. The price of copper topped at the second quarter of 2006 after going extremely parabolic and registering an all time high. I have warned about that extreme situation at least two times.<br /><br />See:<br /><br /> <a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/04/copper-futures-comex-hg.html">Copper Futures , Comex : HG</a> & <a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/05/copper-hg-comex-futures.html">Wednesday, May 31, 2006<br />Copper HG COMEX Futures </a><br /><br />One of the most important indicators for the price of copper is the LME stocks levels which seems to bottom and are up more then 100% since mid 2006.<br /><br />Currently Copper is oversold and I would like to suggest 220 and 190 as important price levels, on the 50 years chart the 145 seems to be the most important price level.<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKrfD_p5p-mkik0npVbWUcQCZYs7gLzL8v_E9P2wTWY3_3kioKVVdgK7PxRoGmLiMUR2xNi_xw_qLUK2w0vwnVzwcvXHc8cGawQJySpBTb2sAD4DEotVktbPtYYknCBx0wEjJi/s1600-h/copper_weekly.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKrfD_p5p-mkik0npVbWUcQCZYs7gLzL8v_E9P2wTWY3_3kioKVVdgK7PxRoGmLiMUR2xNi_xw_qLUK2w0vwnVzwcvXHc8cGawQJySpBTb2sAD4DEotVktbPtYYknCBx0wEjJi/s400/copper_weekly.png" border="0" alt="Copper weekly chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5030973181376634482" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE9IS4MbJwVbfkP9tvoDTIbijzdzA8zwN-V4TbWu_8p-RV4aJJZ6vH4YOEJFKLR-Z7XAenGfZGuxT7LovdE8i8dJ8eaz4LbUg7HttbqeR4mOYs3U5J5Ts8oWen02SE7jAKAYRG/s1600-h/copper-long_term_.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE9IS4MbJwVbfkP9tvoDTIbijzdzA8zwN-V4TbWu_8p-RV4aJJZ6vH4YOEJFKLR-Z7XAenGfZGuxT7LovdE8i8dJ8eaz4LbUg7HttbqeR4mOYs3U5J5Ts8oWen02SE7jAKAYRG/s400/copper-long_term_.gif" border="0" alt="long term copper chart"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5030971446209846866" /></a><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7xJchBrUY1CnDSn7Plckk7Przj1bLyTalpPuD-t-QFrKlPw10_1wo00Pl1cLC0JnLlG-gueWzG6CI7F76YWHtPfzxbcXapRBlGG267smO5jc0RZhvPx-ZxmN3lYucsLx1AmSh/s1600-h/lme-warehouse-copper-1y-.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7xJchBrUY1CnDSn7Plckk7Przj1bLyTalpPuD-t-QFrKlPw10_1wo00Pl1cLC0JnLlG-gueWzG6CI7F76YWHtPfzxbcXapRBlGG267smO5jc0RZhvPx-ZxmN3lYucsLx1AmSh/s400/lme-warehouse-copper-1y-.gif" border="0" alt="LME copper stocks"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5030971450504814178" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-1170668983198159122007-02-05T04:38:00.001-05:002007-05-03T05:49:16.179-04:00WTI ChartsDear readers,<br /><br />Last year I posted several times about 81$ being a price target for profits taking.<br /><br />See:<br /><a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/04/crude-oil-futures-cl-chart-update.html"><br />http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/04/crude-oil-futures-cl-chart-update.html</a><br /><a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/04/new-all-time-high-for-crude-oil-wti.html"><br />http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/04/new-all-time-high-for-crude-oil-wti.html</a><br /><a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/05/crude-oil-futures-wti-elliott-wave.html"><br />http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/05/crude-oil-futures-wti-elliott-wave.html</a><br /><br />WTI Crude oil contracts topped at July 2006 and broke below the five years uptrend line. Crude bottomed at January 2007 and currently we are witnessing some upside but the downtrend channel is still intact. It is still early to determine if the January bottom is significant or not , using the long term chart as guidance I estimate that a down spike to about 40$ is possible. The 62.5$ - 66$ seems like significant resistance for the March contract. As I see the situation traders should be cautious and quick to take profits.<br /><br /><br /><img src="http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/7214/1988/1600/205317/wti-2.gif" alt="WTI crude oil weekly chart March contract " /><br /><br /><img src="http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/7214/1988/1600/903664/wti_3.gif" alt="WTI weekly chart" /><br /><br /><img src="http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/7214/1988/1600/989827/wti.gif" alt="WTI long term chart" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20440106.post-1168857870966467742007-01-15T05:20:00.000-05:002007-05-03T05:48:39.519-04:00Commodity Indices CRB vs. CCI Part 2At September 2006 I have posted about an <a href="http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/09/crb-cci-commodity-index.html">interesting divergence between the CRB and CCI commodity indices.</a> The divergence has extended much farther and the CCI methodology have proved to be better (see the CCI & CRB weekly charts below), at least from for capital appreciation point of view. It appears that crude oil and crude oil derivatives commodities are weighted heavily in the CRB and other propriety indices. <br /><br />Going forward commodities investors should be cautious as some commodities are at a point they can easily decline by up to 50%. It is my opinion that the commodities markets will be more difficult this year with increased divergence (between different commodities) and higher volatility.<br /><br /><br /><img src="http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/7214/1988/1600/896212/cci_j.jpg" alt="CCI Index chart" /><br /><br /><br /><img src="http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/7214/1988/1600/479640/crb_j.jpg" alt="CRB Index chart" />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0