Crude oil prediction and Iran

In case that the Iran situation will escalate in the future and oil export from the Persian gulf is disrupted : The triangle formation will break to the upside and the price of crude oil (wtic cl) will climb to the 210$ area . Alternative scenario : oil will continue to range under 147$ for many years.

CRB Chart

During the last several month commodities had a huge correction . In my opinion - not much downside is left(If any) and speculative shorting should be avoided.
The only question is which commodities are the best buying opportunity?

Crude Oil Update

Despite the huge run up for crude oil prices - seen in the last ten years (up more then 1000%) there is no sign that the long term top is in. looking at the long term linear and logarithmic charts below you can see that higher highs are certainly possible.








Obviously anything that goes up can go down but the crude oil market enjoys an ever increasing demand , low above ground inventories / consumption ratio and 100's of millions of consumers that are willing to pay increasing prices at the pump. Currently there are no major reports of immediate oil shortage, the price seems to be the major factor which keeps the supply demand balance in check.