Tuesday, December 02, 2008

CRB Chart

During the last several month commodities had a huge correction . In my opinion - not much downside is left(If any) and speculative shorting should be avoided.
The only question is which commodities are the best buying opportunity?

crb long term chart

Sunday, June 08, 2008

Crude Oil Update

Despite the huge run up for crude oil prices - seen in the last ten years (up more then 1000%) there is no sign that the long term top is in. looking at the long term linear and logarithmic charts below you can see that higher highs are certainly possible.


Crude oil long term linear chart


Crude oil long term logarithmic chart


Obviously anything that goes up can go down but the crude oil market enjoys an ever increasing demand , low above ground inventories / consumption ratio and 100's of millions of consumers that are willing to pay increasing prices at the pump. Currently there are no major reports of immediate oil shortage, the price seems to be the major factor which keeps the supply demand balance in check.

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Commodities long term Top ?

In recent years most commodities had a huge run up. The Reuters CRB Continuous Commodity Index climbed more then 200%. By definition as a bull market is maturing there is less and less upward potential. I am sure there are many good reasons for commodities prices to be where they are and the outlook might seems even better but that is usually the case at cyclical top of any bull market.

Bull markets often end in a spectacular rally one in which big profits are made quickly. Have we just seen that?, Is the commodities long term top is in place ?

That's is not my point but the odds for multi month/year correction are certainly increasing.


The CCI index had surely proved itself to be the one index to follow this asset class.

CCI chart

CRB chart

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Palladium

Not all commodities are at new all time highs.

Palladium for example is about 60% below its 2001 highs. This volatile metal was trading anywhere between ~1100$ and less then 100$ over the last 30 years.

There are several ways to invest, trade and speculate in palladium:

1) Physical palladium: Palladium ETF (LSE: PHPD) and palladium maple coins.

2) Palladium derivatives: Futures (Nymex: PA)

3) Palladium mining stocks: SWC, PAL.


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