Copper Inventories

As you probably know low stocks equals less supply and thus the price of copper is normally inversely correlated with LME copper warehouse stocks. The LME copper warehouse stocks level are declining consistently since February 2007, already down 50%. Copper stocks are down from about 200,000 to. 105,475 tonne (July 6).


Technically the copper chart looks fine , a-b-c 3 waves correction then an impulsive rally (wave i) , wave iii is currently underway, PPO , RSI up trending bullish. Potential inverted head shoulders pattern with a price objective of 520.

Aluminum Chart (COMEX: AL)

Between the second quarter of 2005 and the Second quarter of 2006 the price of aluminum climbed about 66 cents per pound (0.79$ - 1.45$) for an 83% nominal gain. Note that the price took shape of five wave pattern. According to Elliott waves analysis once a five wave pattern is completed a three wave counter trend should be expected (A, B, C). I estimate that wave (c) is currently underway and a lower low then (a) should follow. The RSI indicator is trending down below 50 and PPO is slightly negative.

Copper High Grade (HG, Comex) & Aluminum (AL, COMEX)

Aluminum is a partial substitute for copper; currently copper is more then two times more expensive then the same weight of aluminum. Aluminum is also a component of the Deutsche-bank commodities index DBLCI which is tracked by the DBC ETF.

Copper Futures (Comex : HG )

Copper is a chemical element in the periodic table that has the symbol Cu and atomic number 29. Copper, one of the oldest commodities known to man, is a product with fortunes which directly reflect the state of the world economy. It is the world's third most widely used metal, after iron and aluminum, and is primarily used in highly cyclical industries such as construction and industrial machinery manufacturing. Profitable extraction of the metal depends on cost-efficient high-volume mining techniques, and supply is sensitive to the political situation particularly in those countries where copper mining is a government-controlled enterprise.

Copper was first worked about 7,000 years ago. Its softness, color, and presence in nature enabled it to be easily mined and fashioned into primitive utensils, tools, and weapons. Five thousand years ago, man learned to alloy copper with tin, producing bronze and giving rise to a new age.

Trading Unit 25,000 pounds





Gold and Silver Charts

Copper High Grade (HG, Comex)